Expect Goals as Rotated USMNT Close Out Group Stage
June 24, 2026
It has been 96 years since the United States participated in the inaugural FIFA World Cup, beating Belgium and Paraguay 3-0 in the group stage before losing 6-1 to Argentina in the semifinals. Since then, the USA has failed to win multiple group stage matches – that is, until this month, when they demolished Paraguay 4-1 in Inglewood before beating Australia 2-0 in Seattle.
The Stars and Stripes will be looking to close out their group stage in style as they welcome Türkiye to Southern California, a match that will be ornamental in the grand sense of things.
USA Aim to Complete Historic Group Stage Sweep
While Team USA has already secured first place and a Round of 32 date in Santa Clara, Türkiye is officially eliminated in their first World Cup appearance since 2002. With only pride on the line, managers Mauricio Pochettino and Vincenzo Montella are expected to heavily rotate their starting lineups.
Rotations Expected From Both Sides
Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards, and Antonee Robinson are all on yellow cards and will likely be rested to avoid a suspension-inducing booking, while Christian Pulisic will likely remain on the bench after also sitting out against Australia. Pochettino should, in theory, play his entire second-choice XI, but with backup midfielder Cristian Roldan nursing a muscle strain, it remains to be seen if that is possible.
Why This Match Points to Goals
All signs point to this being a high-scoring matchup. Türkiye has failed to find the back of the net thus far, but not for a lack of trying, having racked up 62 shots (13 on target) – 13 more shots than any other team. They’ll be seeking to finally convert that into a goal, with the knowledge that Montella is staying on and the hope that their crop of young talents is only going to get better. They’ll also be encouraged by last year’s 2-0 win vs. USA, as well as the fact that the Aussies pinned them deep for the majority of the second half.
Pochettino’s Balancing Act: Rotation vs Momentum
However, Pochettino won’t want these backups to relax, even if it is technically a dead rubber. He’ll want them to push things forward and force the issue in attack, even if that means leaving themselves exposed at the back. It means that both Over 2.5 goals as well as Both Teams to Score should be in play for what promises to be an entertaining match in Inglewood.
Pochettino needs to toe the line between rotation and keeping up the momentum, but the main priority should be giving his best players a breather ahead of the knockouts. Türkiye, meanwhile, has plenty of attacking talent with the likes of Kenan Yıldız and Arda Güler, and should be more than capable of racking up the goals at SoFi – forgive me, Los Angeles Stadium.
Prediction: Open, Free-Flowing Encounter
Back the goals for both teams, and back Ricardo Pepi and Güler in particular to hit the target more than once. In a game where neither team has that much pressure on their shoulders, this points to a free-flowing, high-octane match-up. A match where the USA substitutes will be looking to push for more minutes, and where the Turkish players will be looking to prove that they’re capable of making their mark on the world’s biggest stage.
By Zach Lowy
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Bovada Trading Team Prediction
June 24, 2026
Not only has the 2026 World Cup been a smashing success, but Team USA has completely dominated Group D. A clinical 6-1 goal differential means bettors who backed them to win the group are already cashing tickets. Now, the handicap centers on motivation: how will the U.S. perform with nothing left to play for before the knockout rounds, and how much fight does an eliminated Türkiye team have left?
“Both teams have nothing to play for, which means fringe players are likely to make up both sides,” the Bovada Trading Team explained. “Motivation is definitely a concern, but with a raucous home crowd, we can’t see America taking its foot off the gas.”
“Türkiye will leave themselves short while attacking,” they said. “This should mean Team USA can be ruthless whenever there’s space behind them.”
“Goals are surely to be expected.”
Trading Team Choices:
- USA to win and Haji Wright to score – Same Game Parlay
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Why These Wagers?
“Christian Pulisic was the creative spark we predicted against Paraguay before an injury sidelined him against Australia. His absence limited [Florian] Balogun’s attacking output.”
“With Pulisic out [against Türkiye], my suspicion is Haji Wright will play on the front line. He looked lively against Australia and can continue the momentum versus Türkiye.”
“Balogun has already rewarded our faith once during this tournament, but we’ll change allegiances to Haji Wright here.”
Türkiye and Balogun Tidbits
“Türkiye’s tournament has been a major disappointment. Despite boasting exciting young talent such as Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz, they haven’t scored and have often looked short of ideas when they have scoring chances. They’re going to be desperate to get on the board versus USA.”
“We didn’t pick him today, but Florian Balogun has justified the pre-tournament hype. The Monaco striker has stretched defenses with intelligent movement and pace, while his finishing has added a cutting edge that was sometimes missing during qualifying.”
“I’d still keep an eye on him throughout this tournament.”
Match 3 for Team USA is likely a big one; they face Turkey on June 25 at 10 p.m. ET in what could be a do-or-die matchup.
By the time this Group D finale kicks off, the picture will be clear: The United States men’s national soccer team (USMNT) could already be through to the Last 32 round if they handled Paraguay in Match 1 and Australia in Match 2. If they dropped points in either match, they could be battling for the top spot. And if they failed to win either game, they could be fighting just to stay alive.
Turkey arrives with something to prove. They earned their place in this tournament with a 1-0 win over Kosovo in the UEFA Playoff and bring a structured, disciplined squad to World Cup betting. They’re not a favorite to win the World Cup, but their Group D odds definitely make them a contender to advance. If they handled their business leading into their match with Team USA, they could be battling to win Group D.
Match Details
USA faces Turkey at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, on June 25 at 7 p.m. PT (10 p.m. ET).
Viewers should expect first or second place in Group D to be on the line. Before the 2026 World Cup began, the USMNT opened as the favorite to win its group, with Turkey projected as a strong contender for second. If either team struggled in earlier matches, the simultaneous clash between Paraguay and Australia directly impacts the outcome. Both results are shaping the final Group D standings in real time.
As with all Group Stage matches, a win earns 3 points, a draw earns 1, and a loss earns none. The top two teams advance to the last 32 along with eight third-place teams across 12 groups.
Group D Context and What’s at Stake
Everything in this match depends on what happened in Matches 1 and 2.
If USA handles business early, this becomes a positioning match. Finishing at the top of Group D matters more than it seems, as it can lead to more favorable matchups in the knockout rounds.
If USA had mixed results, the pressure shifts: a win guarantees qualification, while anything less opens the door to scoreboard watching – relying on the Paraguay vs. Australia results.
If the USA lost points in the earlier matches, this becomes simple: win or go home. No margin for error, no second chances.
That’s what makes Match 3 different. It’s not about momentum anymore; it’s about survival.
Know Your Opponent: Turkey
Turkey qualified for the 2026 World Cup by beating Kosovo 1-0 in the UEFA Playoff Path C final, securing their return to the tournament.
This is Turkey’s fourth trip to the World Cup (1950, 1954, 2002, and 2026), with their best performance coming in 2002, where they finished third in one of the tournament’s most memorable underdog performances. While they missed several tournaments after that, they’ve re-established themselves as a competitive European squad.
This is a team built on structure and physical play. They don’t need the ball to stay competitive and are comfortable sitting back and waiting for opponents to make mistakes. That style becomes especially dangerous in a final group match. If the USMNT is under pressure to score points to help Group D tiebreakers, Turkey could capitalize.
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Head-to-Head Record
USA and Turkey have met five times, once in the 2003 FIFA Confederations Cup and the rest in friendlies.
Their most recent matchup came on June 7, 2025, when Turkey beat USA 2–1 in an international friendly. USA got out to an early lead, but Turkey scored twice before halftime and held on the rest of the way. It’s a reminder that while the USA may have the edge on paper, Turkey understands how to gain a lead and maintain their hold until the end.
Recent Matchups
Outside the group stage, USMNT has shown flashes of strong form mixed with inconsistency. They struggled in Europe with losses to Belgium and Portugal but responded well against teams from other regions, including wins over Paraguay (2-1), Australia (2-1), and Uruguay (5-1), along with a draw against Ecuador.
Australia and Paraguay both tested them, showing that even in wins, matches have been tight and competitive.
Turkey’s form entering the tournament reflects a similar pattern. Their qualification win over Kosovo was narrow, and their overall style suggests a team that prefers low-scoring, controlled matches rather than open play.
Key Players to Watch
For USMNT, Folarin Balogun is the player to watch. Now firmly established as the primary striker, his movement and finishing give the U.S. a true goal-scoring presence – something they lacked in previous World Cup trips. In a match that could come down to one opening, he’s the most likely to convert.
In midfield, Tyler Adams will be critical. His ability to break up play and control tempo makes him the engine of the team, especially against a structured opponent like Turkey.
For Turkey, Arda Güler is the standout threat. The playmaker from Real Madrid brings creativity and unpredictability and can be the difference in a tight match.
Betting Markets
The odds for this match depend on how these Group D matches unfold. USA is expected to be favored on the moneyline, especially playing at home, but Turkey is good enough to flip the odds if they have a good run in their earlier matches. Moneyline World Cup betting allows bettors to pick a winner outright or take the draw. Draw may ultimately be favored if both squads have similar performances leading up to this matchup.
“Both Teams to Score” odds are worth monitoring, especially if both sides need high scoring to break any Group D tiebreakers. This also affects the total, which will likely hover at 2.5 goals. Match 3 generally leads to more aggressive play when the pressure to advance is on.
FAQ
Q: When is USA vs. Turkey at the 2026 World Cup?
USA vs Turkey is scheduled for June 25, 2026, with kickoff at 10:00 p.m. ET (7 p.m. local time) at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, which will be referred to as “Los Angeles Stadium” during the tournament.
Q: Who does the USA play in Match 3?
The USA faces Turkey in its final Group D match.
Q: What is the USA’s head-to-head record vs Turkey?
The two teams have met only a handful of times. The most recent meeting was a 2-1 Turkey win over USA last June.
Q: How did Turkey qualify for the 2026 World Cup?
Turkey earned their spot by winning UEFA Playoff Path C, beating Kosovo 1–0 in the final to advance to the World Cup.
Q: What is Turkey’s best World Cup finish?
Turkey’s best finish came in 2002, when they placed third in one of the most memorable underdog runs in World Cup history.
Q: What does this match mean for Group D?
This match will determine the final Group D standings. Depending on earlier results, the USA may be playing to advance to the Last 32, lock in first place, or avoid elimination.
Q: Where can I bet on USA vs. Turkey?
Odds for USA vs Turkey are available at Bovada, including moneyline, totals, and player props. Check the latest lines closer to kickoff.
USA vs. Turkey: A potential do-or-die or tie matchup on June 25 at SoFi Stadium. Bet on Team USA with Bovada’s USA World Cup odds before kick-off.
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