The 2026 World Cup is here. For Team USA, there’s never been a better time to go on a record run. They’ve got home soil. A home crowd. And “Captain America” Christian Pulisic believes it’s the best team he’s ever been a part of.
“Looking at the guys playing at the highest levels and doing extremely well at their clubs, and I think for sure [we] have a really, really strong squad and depth as well,” he said.
But Paraguay, their first opponent, arrives with their own point to make after missing the 2022 World Cup. Leading up to their June 12 matchup, Paraguay has been a volatile team with the firepower to upset any nation, let alone a USA squad they played last November.
Match 1. Group D. Home crowd going nuts. This is where America’s World Cup begins.
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Match Details
USA vs. Paraguay kicks off Group D at 9 p.m. ET on June 12, 2026, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. It’s the first Group D matchup, which includes Turkey and Australia.
USA and Paraguay only faced each other once in eight years, a recent November 15, 2025, friendly where the USA won 2-1after full time. That, and home-field advantage, make America the slight favorite to win, while Paraguay and the Draw have the underdog odds.
USMNT lost its last two European friendlies versus Belgium and Portugal. But before the European tour hadn’t lost in five straight matchups across Asia and South America. Paraguay is in the World Cup for the first time since 2010, qualifying via CONMEBOL, finishing 6th.
Group D Context and What’s at Stake
As this is a Group Stage matchup, a win earns 3 points, a draw earns 1, and a loss earns none. Even with FIFA expanding the field from 32 to 48 teams, getting points early is critical to securing a place in the Last 32 – the knockout stage. With only three group matches for each team, there’s limited time to build momentum.
The top two teams in Group D advance automatically, while the remaining spots go to the eight best third-place finishers across all 12 groups.
The pressure is especially on Team USA. At home and favored to win Group D, anything other than a 3-point opener saps America’s confidence and eliminates the margin for error moving forward.
Recent Matchups
USMNT lost its recent European friendlies involving Belgium and Portugal by a combined 7-2 score. However, they fared much better against South American teams, dominating Uruguay 5-1, tying Ecuador 1-1, and, of course, their 2-1 win over Paraguay in November. That result gives the Americans a psychological edge – but it’s not a guarantee. In the 2025 matchup, Paraguay had a 1-1 draw at halftime vs. USA; a goal in the 71st minute sealed their fate.
Paraguay has also shown solid form in recent friendlies. They held Morocco scoreless through the first half before two quick scores in the second killed their momentum. They picked up a 1-0 win over Greece on March 27, and had a huge 2-1 victory against Mexico in a friendly back on November 19, 2025.
Head-to-Head Record
The recent head-to-head record leans toward the United States, but it’s been competitive:
- November 15, 2025: USA 2–1 Paraguay (Friendly).
- March 27, 2018: USA 1–0 Paraguay (Friendly).
- June 11, 2016: USA 1–0 Paraguay (Copa America).
- March 30, 2011: Paraguay 1–0 USA (Friendly).
- July 2, 2007: Paraguay 3–1 USA (Copa America).
USMNT has won the last three meetings, including a Copa America matchup in 2016. Paraguay’s last win came in 2007, a 3-1 result in the Copa America that fans still remember. Overall, across the last five games, it’s 3-2 USA. This is a rivalry with just enough edge to make any pick uncomfortable.
Key Players to Watch
For USMNT, everything starts with Christian Pulisic. He’s been their “Captain America” since 2016, the face of U.S. Soccer on the global stage, and the first American superstar to consistently perform with top European clubs. What’s bothersome is he’s on an eight-game scoreless streak; he also hasn’t scored for his club team, AC Milan, since Dec. 28. The center of America’s offensive attack has run cold.
Paraguay’s biggest threats come from their attacking core. Miguel Almiron provides speed and pressure in transition, while Julio Enciso brings unpredictability and creativity. Midfielder Diego Gomez adds energy and can move the team from defense to attack. Paraguay may not dominate possessions, but they have players who can exploit mistakes quickly.
Betting Markets
America opened as the favorite on the moneyline against Paraguay and, barring any major injuries, is expected to remain that way through kickoff. Moneyline bets allow bettors to pick either team to win outright or take the draw. While Team USA holds the edge at home, the odds remain relatively tight, reflecting that Paraguay – or the draw – still presents real value.
In the 2022 Group Stage, favorites won roughly 48–52% of matches, while underdogs and draws each accounted for around 25–30%. As with most World Cup betting, total score wagers are typically set at 2.5 goals, with the under hitting approximately 55–60% of the time. Early Group Stage matches tend to hit the under more because teams play cautiously. Securing 1 point from a draw is often preferred over risking everything for 3 and ending up with none. Especially for underdogs, who are willing to play for a 1-point draw just to survive.
Q: When is USA vs Paraguay at the 2026 World Cup?
USA vs Paraguay is scheduled for June 12, 2026. The match will be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, which will be referred to as “Los Angeles Stadium” during the tournament. Kickoff time is 9 p.m. ET.
Q: What group are USA and Paraguay in?
Both teams are in Group D, alongside Australia and Turkey.
Q: What is the USA vs Paraguay head-to-head record?
America has won three of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 win on November 15, 2025.
Q: Who is the favorite for USA vs Paraguay?
Team USA is expected to be favored playing at home. For the latest odds and market movement, check Bovada closer to kickoff.
Q: What is USA’s recent form?
Team USA hadn’t lost for five straight friendlies before losing to Belgium 5-2 on March 28 and to Portugal 2-0 on April 1.
Q: What does this match mean for Group D qualification?
A win would give USA an early edge in the race to reach the Last 32. Dropping points would immediately increase the pressure heading into their remaining group matches.
USA vs Paraguay. USA’s World Cup run starts here. Find your USA World Cup bets at Bovada. Odds are live now.