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Last year, the Seattle Seahawks began the 2025 season as approximately +6000 underdogs to win Super Bowl LX. They ultimately closed as +350 favorites before winning it all over the New England Patriots, 29-13. They finished tied for the best regular-season record against the spread (ATS) at 12-5 and, after the Super Bowl, finished as the clear top wager with a 15-5 ATS record. It’s proof that any given Sunday, an underdog can rise to the top of America’s hottest sport.
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Come back on May 12 to see the full schedule for NFL Week 4.
Well, this NFL season has been chaotic and unpredictable. Massive dogs are winning every week. The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored three touchdowns all year and are 3-0. The Chiefs are 3-0 and end with every non-Chiefs fan up in arms. It seems as unpredictable as ever. With that being said, there is money to be won. Let’s take a look at my locks for NFL week 4:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 vs Eagles: -110
- Minnesota Vikings +3 vs Packers: -118
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 vs Philadelphia Eagles: -110
The Bucs are coming off a brutal loss against the Denver Broncos who have looked objectively not good this year and the Eagles are coming off a big win against a hot New Orleans Saints team. So, why the Bucs? Well, comes down to the Eagles leaving that Saints game completely banged up. They will likely be without AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Lane Johnson and Mekhi Becton. On the other hand, the Bucs could be getting healthier with Antoine Winfield Jr. and Vita Vea both having a chance of returning.
The Eagles’ defense has also struggled this year outside that Saints game. They are currently 25th in the NFL in defensive DVOA. That combined with all of the offensive injuries is likely going to be too much to overcome and you are getting points with the Bucs. I’ll take the Bucs in a close one.
Minnesota Vikings +3 vs Green Bay Packers: -118
You could argue the Minnesota Vikings have been the most impressive team in this short NFL season. They have wins over the 49ers and, last week, they stomped on the Houston Texans, 34-7. Sam Darnold’s career has been completely resurrected and he leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 8 on the year. Kevin O’Connell continues to show that he is one of the best offensive minds in the game and it really doesn’t matter who is under center for him. While O’Connell is dialing it up on the offensive side of the ball for Minnesota, Brian Flores is equally impressive on the defensive side of the ball for them. Flores has the defense at the top of the DVOA rankings so far and he has been putting offenses in a blender all year. A prime example was last week, letting up 7 points against a very good Houston offense.
This line shows that they think Jordan Love is going to be playing for Green Bay. I think that unless Love is completely healthy, it is a mistake to rush him back, especially against Flores’ defense. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay head coach, is an early (too early), candidate for head coach of the year with him being able to coach up 2 wins with Malik Willis under center. By the way, if you think coaching doesn’t matter in the NFL, these two head coaches are a prime example that it really matters. LaFleur has really leaned on the rushing attack while Love has been out, and they currently lead the NFL in rushing yards per game due to this. On the other hand, Minnesota is giving up the second-fewest rushing yards per game.
Whether Love is healthy or not, I like Minnesota and the points in this one. O’Connell and Flores continue to show they are one of the best pairs of coaches in the NFL.