Projecting quarterback play five years into the future is always risky, but the NFL’s next era of elite passers is already taking shape. By 2031, some of today’s stars will still be dominating while a new generation fully enters its prime. Here’s a projection of who the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL could be in five years, factoring in age, talent, development trajectory, and long-term concerns.
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5 Yr Top Quarterback Prediction:
10) Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes will be 35 by 2031, but his creativity, arm talent, and football IQ should allow him to remain productive even as his athleticism declines. The only concern is whether years of deep playoff runs and constant pressure eventually slow him down physically, especially coming off an ACL tear.
9) Fernando Mendoza
Mendoza could be entering his prime at just 25 years old, bringing a combination of size, pocket presence, and natural arm talent that translates well to the NFL level. If his development continues on the right trajectory, with a revamped offensive line and elite weapons in Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers in Vegas, he has the tools to grow into a true franchise quarterback.
8) Lamar Jackson
At 34, Jackson could still be one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league thanks to his unique dual-threat ability and improved passing efficiency. The long-term question will always revolve around how well his game ages as his world-class speed inevitably declines.
7) Cam Ward
Ward’s playmaking instincts and ability to create outside the structure of the offense give him massive upside as he enters his prime years at 29. The only concerns will be whether or not Tennessee can surround him with enough talent and consistency—his aggressive style produces highlight plays, but it can also lead to risky decisions if not fully refined.
6) Caleb Williams
Williams should be firmly in his prime by 29, armed with elite arm talent and the improvisational ability that has already made him one of football’s most exciting young quarterbacks. His ability to extend plays and attack every level of the field gives him true MVP-level potential – as long as he figures out the accuracy issues.
5) Justin Herbert
Herbert’s combination of size, mobility, and one of the strongest arms in football should allow him to age extremely well into his early 30s. By 33 he could be operating at peak command of the position, pairing elite physical tools with veteran-level decision making. Will he ever make an AFC Championship game?
4) Joe Burrow
Burrow’s game is built on elite accuracy, anticipation, and processing speed—traits that typically age very well for quarterbacks. At 34 he could still be dissecting defenses the same way the best veteran passers historically have.
3) Drake Maye
Maye will likely be right in the middle of his prime at 28, combining prototypical quarterback size with mobility and a powerful arm. He’s already a perennial MVP candidate.
2) Jayden Daniels
The only concern I have about Daniels is health, and whether or not he can stay healthy. Because as we saw in 2024 when he had the greatest rookie QB season ever, Daniels’ combination of athleticism, deep ball accuracy and processing speed is as valuable and good as anybody in the NFL.
1) Josh Allen
Allen’s rare mix of size, arm strength, and power running makes him one of the most physically dominant quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen. Even at 35, those traits—combined with years of experience—could keep him firmly at the top of the league.
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