Written by: Eli Berkovits
Eli is an NFL fanatic, with fantastic knowledge surrounding the sport. Be sure to follow Eli on X (@BookOfEli_NFL).
To say that defenses dominated Week 6 would be a major understatement. There were 23 teams who scored 20 or fewer points last week. Let’s just be real, that is no fun. Lucky for us, I expect the offenses to bounce back in a big way this week with some of the most exciting matchups of the year on schedule. We’ve got the Chiefs facing the Chargers, Lions going up against the Ravens and then a primetime showdown between the Eagles and Dolphins – I cannot wait for this week to get started.
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Let’s not waste any more time and get straight to my Week 7 NFL locks.
Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs Indianapolis Colts
The Browns were on the winning end of the biggest upset of the 2023 season. With P.J. Walker under center, the Browns pulled off a stunning victory over the undefeated 49ers. Meanwhile, the Colts are dealing with a number of key injuries, none bigger than their rookie QB, Anthony Richardson who is now headed to season-ending IR. With Richardson hurt, it’s up to Gardner Minshew to lead this team and I can’t say I’m very confident. Last week he threw three interceptions in a bad 37-20 loss to the Jaguars, now imagine what this Browns defense can do to him.
This Browns defense hasn’t just been good, they’ve been absolutely dominant. Through five games, they have only allowed 607 total passing yards – that’s just a measly 121 yards per game. They also rank 3rd against the run allowing only 395 rushing yards on the year. The Colts are simply not going to be able to move the ball against this unit. To make matters worse for Indy, Deshaun Watson is expected to be back for this game which should give Cleveland all the offense it needs to win this one easily. The Browns are 3-2 against the spread this year and I fully expect that to be 4-2 by Sunday night.
Detroit Lions +3 vs Baltimore Ravens
I’m honestly shocked that the Lions are underdogs in this game, let alone by three points. The Lions have been one of the NFL’s best teams all season and while the Ravens have definitely been good, I don’t see them being able to keep up with Detroit’s offense. Through six weeks, the Lions are averaging 28 points per game while the Ravens sit at just over 22 points per game.
Anyone who watches football knows that the Ravens’ entire identity is running the football. What some of you may not know is that the Lions currently have the best run defense in the NFL allowing only 64.6 rushing yards per game. If the Ravens can’t get the run game going, they will have to rely on Lamar Jackson’s arm which hasn’t been great this year throwing only five touchdowns versus three interceptions. Baltimore is a good team that I don’t expect to just roll over, but the Lions are more talented at nearly every level which is why I have them winning this game outright.
San Francisco -6.5 vs Minnesota Vikings
We will have to wait until Monday night football for my last lock of the week but trust me, it will be worth the wait. As I mentioned earlier, the 49ers suffered maybe the most surprising loss of the season last week and I expect them to come out angry on Monday night. On the other side of the ball, we have the 2-4 Vikings who struggled to beat the Tyson Bagent-led Bears last week.
This has been a nightmare season for Minnesota on many levels, but nothing hurt worse than losing star WR, Justin Jefferson to a hamstring injury two weeks ago. Jefferson may return at some point this year, but it definitely won’t be this week. Without him, Kirk Cousins looked helpless against a putrid Bears defense – now imagine what he’ll look like against the 49ers’ dominant defense. San Francisco’s defense has given up only 14.5 points per game while their offense is scoring over 30 points per game. The Vikings have been overwhelmed by far less this year, give me the 9ers all the way.