The NFL season reaches double digits and the “Have’s” and the “have nots” are starting to separate themselves from each other. The Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, and Bills are on a tier by themselves. All are Super Bowl contenders and can beat anyone on any week. In the next tier, you can throw in the Commanders, Vikings, Packers, Steelers, Niners, and Eagles. These teams are solid. They are playoff teams. Can they win the Super Bowl? Sure, but they must have a lot going right for them to be able to do so. These teams and maybe a handful more could be considered the “have’s.”
The “have not’s” are the myriad of teams with only two wins. Saints, Raiders, Panthers, Patriots, Titans, Browns, Giants, and Jaguars are all clumped into this group. Some of them appear to be better situations than others. The Saints fired another coach and have no cap space. The Raiders fired another coach, but not the head coach and they have no quarterback. The Patriots on the other hand may have found their quarterback of the future. They aren’t good now, but having a QB in place for the future is a major step in the right direction.
The NFL is starting to show it’s hand. Let’s see if we can take advantage of it in the betting market.
View the latest NFL odds at Bovada
Washington Commanders -3 over Pittsburgh Steelers
First, this is a really fun matchup. This is one of the top offenses in the NFL against one of the top defenses in the NFL. It is one of the new up and coming stars in the NFL, Jayden Daniels, against TJ Watt and Mike Tomlin’s defense. The Commanders are currently 2nd in the NFL in DVOA on the offensive side of the ball and the Steelers are the 8th ranked DVOA defensive team in the NFL.
The Steelers may have the 7th best Pass Rush Win Rate per ESPN, but the Commanders have the 2nd Pass Block Win Rate. Jayden Daniels is also in the top half of the league in getting the ball out quickly. This should be a huge benefit to the Commanders. On the other side, the Commanders have the 4th best Pass Rush Win Rate, while the Steelers are only middle of the pack in pass blocking. The advantage in the trenches goes to the commanders, surprisingly. That, paired with Daniels ability to make plays outside of structure is why I really like the Commanders in this matchup.
Kansas City -7.5 over Denver Broncos
Everyone keeps waiting for the Chiefs to finally get got. None of their wins in this undefeated season have been pretty. That doesn’t matter though. They are winning. Their brand of football is very different from the once high-flying offense that everyone thinks of when they think of the Chiefs. They are very content with playing smash-mouth football, being super efficient on 3rd down, and playing lights-out defense.
Chiefs have the most efficient run game in the NFL paired with Patrick Mahomes, who, on 3rd down, is by far the best quarterback in the NFL. He is averaging .409 EPA per dropback on 3rd down, with the next closest being Joe Burrow at .237. They also added DeAndre Hopkins to this offense just two weeks ago. This past week he had 8 catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns. Oh, by the way, Travis Kelce just had a 14-catch game too. I think the talks of him being washed may have been a little pre-mature. This is a pretty decent spread, and the Chiefs have to win by more than a touchdown. However, Patrick Mahomes is 12-1 against Denver, and they have owned the AFC West since he became the starter. Also, I don’t see how rookie QB Bo Nix scores enough points against Steve Spagnuolo and this defense. Chiefs coast in this win 31-13.
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