These days, most discussions when it comes to sporting events are either “What’s the point spread?” or “Is there a total or a prop that you like?” Rarely does the conversation cross over from a really important storyline to whether that storyline can help cash some tickets.
As a lifelong sports nut, I love when these two avenues intersect, and the motivation of ONE player can help when I am handicapping a game. This is exactly how I have attacked this Super Bowl.
Players are human. Sometimes they play like they are superhumans, but they watch TV, read articles, and pay attention to social media and records just like anyone else. And as we start to dissect everything that #15 in red and white—Patrick Mahomes—can accomplish and set himself up for, it really helps decide which QB props I want to lean into.
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Mahomes’ Mentality
It’s no secret that the Chiefs offense has been less than stellar throughout the playoffs. The defense has carried the day, having allowed only 41 points in three postseason games. It doesn’t mean that Mahomes hasn’t done anything; what it does mean is that Mahomes has done what is necessary to win.
Mahomes is a really smart football player; he understands that with a win, he will only be a year behind the pace set by Tom Brady with his 3rd Super Bowl title. Mahomes knows that Brady, at 34 years old, had only been to four AFC championships. Most of the damage was done in Brady’s late 30’s and 40’s and Brady didn’t have a northern star to shoot for. Mahomes does. A victory would allow Mahomes to already know that to tie Brady, he would need four titles in the next 16 years. That would still make Mahomes one year younger than Brady. It would sound crazy if Mahomes hadn’t already gone on record saying he wants to play for a really long time. At $50 million plus a year, Patrick will set every financial record as well…
So what does this legacy motivation mean? We discussed ALL four QB’s and now we are down to the last two. But really, this is only about one. At least if you speak history. So what bets involving Mahomes can he control to make sure his team is in a position to win?
Mahomes Props
Super Bowl MVP +135
When a team wins almost all the time it’s the QB who gets the praise. Unless a defensive player like Chris Jones comes up with 3 or 4 sacks, this MVP with a Chiefs win would most certainly go to Mahomes.
Passing Yards
Both the Chiefs and 49ers are incredible at long drives and ball control. This to me leans towards the under. The three totals for Mahomes in the playoffs are 262 vs Dolphins, 215 vs Bills, and 241 vs Ravens. Unless this game gets out of hand, I believe Mahomes will use his legs AND his arms to get the job done.
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Rushing Yards
This makes too much sense to play the over despite 1 of 3 games beating the number. Mahomes is not the fastest nor is he even a great athlete, but does however have a sixth sense like no one else I have ever seen. But as I envision this game playing out and the 49ers playing their zone defense, there will be plenty of space for Mahomes to use his legs.
Chiefs Team Total
Mahomes and Andy Reid are great when they have a chance to prepare. And with 2 weeks and a 49ers defense that allowed the Packers and Lions to march up and down the field, the play-calling should be superb. Mahomes isn’t bothered by 3rd downs and I think will lead the Chiefs to more than 23 points.
Kelce Catches
This is still about Mahomes. As the team has gotten deeper, the number of receivers that Mahomes trusts has gotten smaller. Travis Kelce struggled in the regular season compared to his usual production. Mahomes, however, never wavered when it mattered with 8 connections IN THE FIRST half against the Ravens.
These are just five ways Mahomes can control the prop market for the Super Bowl. The great ones understand that you cannot let a year go by when you have a chance to move into rarefied air. Trust the quarterback who has a chance to do the unthinkable when, just a few years ago, it was out of the question to think that anyone would challenge Brady in our lifetime. Well, not only is it possible, but with a win this weekend, let’s cash a few tickets along the way.
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