Written by: Bonnie-Jill Laflin. The first and only female NBA scout.
Boxing has been on quite an uptick lately and the upcoming Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia fight is no exception. The annual tradition of boxing matches on Cinco De Mayo weekend brings us another intriguing bout between perennial fan favorite Saul Canelo Alvarez and the hard hitting Jaime Munguia. Canelo Alvarez will be defending all four of his super middleweight titles for this fight.
View the latest Boxing Odds at Bovada
For the casual fans it is important to take a closer look at Jaime Munguia to truly appreciate this matchup. It’s far too easy to dismiss this fight as Canelo getting spoon fed another easy victory but from a boxing and betting standpoint, it’s not that simple.
Munguia: A Noteworthy Opponent
Jaime Munguia comes in with a record of (43-0, 34 KOs). He’s 6 years younger than Canelo Alverez and has some very heavy hands. He also comes with the ability to string together some devastating flurries of combinations that may cause Canelo some problems. Munguia is an offensive minded fighter and moves forward quite a bit; it’s the core of his style and his best bet at beating Canelo. The fact that Canelo is more than willing to exchange with Munguia should make the type of exciting and active fight that Mexican fans love. As far as pedigree is concerned, Munguia has trained for several years with legendary Mexican fighter and boxing hall of famer, Eric Morales. Munguia switched to training with another legend, Freddie Roach at Wild Card gym. Their first fight together was against John Ryder. In that fight, Munguia dropped Ryder 4 times en route to a 9th round stoppage. This is also notable in the fact that Canelo Alvarez also fought Ryder and only dropped Ryder once, winning the fight by unanimous decision.
Munguia Needs A Knockout
This illustrates fundamentally how the fight may play out. Canelo, the superior boxer, will look to outbox Munguia and likely win by decision. Jaime Munguia will be taking the fight to Canelo and making it more of a brawl. He comes with a high volume of punches and Canelo will have to be completely on his game or he’ll get caught by one of those heavy shots. For Jaime Munguia, it’s likely going to be KO or bust. In a closely contested fight, the possibility of winning by decision is a low one. Canelo is just too polished of a boxer at this point in his career to lose on the scorecards. Munguia will have to put Canelo in peril early and make him hesitant to throw. There is a lot of potential intrigue in this fight. Munguia will absolutely land a few large shots and have the audience on the edge of their seats. It’s just a matter of how many can he land and if he can finish the job.
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The Betting Markets
Canelo: -600
Munguia: +425
Canelo is obviously the betting favorite. He’s the more popular fighter, the more experienced fighter and the more polished boxer. Based on the odds, Canelo has a 85-88 percent probability to win with a likelihood of a 73% chance that the fight lasts more than 10.5 rounds.
Things to keep in mind when making any bets:
Munguia:
- Has a nearly 80 percent KO rate
- Has a reach advantage on Canelo and knows how to use reach and range to his advantage
- Has a solid chin and an aggressive style, often starting fast
- He’s younger and has excellent cardio.
- Freddie Roach is the right kind of trainer to take him to the next level
- His fundamentals and fight IQ has grown quite a bit over the last several fights
- He destroyed Ryder while Canelo won by decision
- If an old lion like Canelo is taken out, this is the type of young hungry fighter to do it
Canelo:
- He’s the current pound for pound best in the world and has the boxing IQ to back it up
- One of the best defensive fighters and counter punchers in the business
- Extremely accurate and quick with his hands
- Munguia gets excited when he senses a KO and often will lower his defense
- Canelo may be the hardest puncher Munguia has ever faced
- Canelo is a slow starter and is fighting a younger fresher fighter
It’s going to be an entertaining fight for sure. The most attractive bet is the fight ending in the later rounds by KO. Either Munguia shows a new level of patience under Freddie Roach and breaks down Canelo systematically for a KO or Mungia gets overly excited and exposes himself to some hard counters from Canelo. Canelo may be forced to KO Mungia to stop him. A Canelo win by decision doesn’t return much but either fighter winning by KO/TKO/DQ is an attractive return.
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