Week 1 in the NFL is always a wild one and this year was no different. The Panthers get routed by the Saints, the Chiefs win a thriller over Baltimore, Christian McCaffrey is a late inactive and the list goes on and on. As you try and analyze the upcoming week there are likely factors that you can try to ignore from the start of the NFL Season. It is such a small sample size right now, you don’t want to overreact to the outcomes of week 1. Let’s take a look at my NFL week 2 locks:
- Colts -3 vs Packers: -120
- Cooper Kupp Over 7.5 Receptions: EVEN
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Colts -3 vs GB Packers: -120
Packers’ Rely On Willis
Unfortunately for Packers fans, they watched their team lose a close battle with a good Eagles team, but also watched their franchise QB sustain a knee injury that will likely sideline him for a bit of time. Matt Lafleur is arguably one of the best coaches in the NFL and the Packers have an extremely talented roster. This has everything to do with the fact that Malik Willis is likely one of the worst backups in all the NFL. Willis, in limited starts, has proven he is not a starting level player in the NFL. He takes too many sacks, 15 in 82 pass attempts, he has 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in those starts, and a passer rating of 48.7. These numbers come in just three starts in his short career. The one positive for the Packers is that he is athletic. He has the ability to get out of the pocket and create with his legs a little and maybe Lafluer will be able to scheme stuff up for him.
Colts Rely On Runners
The Colts are coming off a tough divisional battle with the Texans and need this win to avoid two straight losses. The Colts should lean heavily on their running game and look to take shots off of those plays. Everyone saw the jaw-dropping throw from Anthony Richardson to Alec Pierce this past weekend and those are the type of ceiling plays you can expect from Richardson throughout the year. In their loss, they still looked to get Jonathan Taylor involved and gave him 16 careers. I would expect the same after this week as the Packers struggled to stop Philadelphia on the ground- Saquon Barkley rushed for 109 yards on 24 carries and 2 touchdowns. I expect this game to be a low-scoring, grinding-it-out-on-the-ground type of game with the Packers just not having enough firepower with Malik Willis under center. Look for a 24-20 type battle in Indianapolis this week.
Cooper Kupp Over 7.5 Receptions: EVEN
21 targets. 14 catches. That is Kupp’s stat line from the Rams’ past matchup with the Detroit Lions. Puka Nacua is out once again for the Lions and the rest of the receiving core includes Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson likely stepping into the Nacua role. I expect Matt Stafford to absolutely pepper Kupp with targets once again in a strong matchup vs a weak Cardinals secondary. As mentioned, it is only a one week sample size, but Arizona did come away with the worst defensive DVOA ranking after the first week. That is also going against a high powered Buffalo offense. Head coach Sean McVay and quarterback know where their bread is buttered and are going to exploit any matchup they find. Kupp vs the Cardinals secondary provides a great opportunity for Kupp to have another double digit catch performance this week.
*Odds subject to change
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