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NFL Week 16 is here. Last week was a decent week; we saw ourselves go 1-1 with our locks. The Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen were just too much for the beaten-up Lions defense and what was a high-scoring game that was never really out of Buffalo’s control. The Bills offense has been on an absolute tear over these past few weeks and this week they are 14-point favorites against New England. While they could very well end up covering, that is not a number I want to challenge.

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There are some other games with very interesting spreads. Hopefully, you were lucky enough to grab the Chiefs at +3 before the number completely flipped to -3 with the news that Patrick Mahomes was practicing on Tuesday. The Dolphins are 1-point favorites over the 49ers, the Vikings are 3.5-point favorites over the Seahawks and Geno Smith is banged up, the Rams are 3.5-point favorites over the Jets, and the Eagles are 3.5 favorites over the Commanders. All of these games are interesting and are in consideration one way or the other for me this week. So, where are we going? Let’s take a look and find some winners.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 over the Cowboys

The Bucs have been a fun team all year to watch. Their offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, has that offense humming and Baker Mayfield has had a very good season. In the last four weeks, the Bucs offense ranks fourth in the NFL in EPA per play- only behind the Bills (1), Ravens (2), Eagles (3). In that same stretch, the Cowboys defense is actually 5th in EPA per play. This will prove to be a good battle as far as that matchup is concerned. The bigger discrepancy is the Bucs defense ranking 2nd and the Cowboys offense ranking 14th. The Cowboys will continue to lean on the running game of Rico Dowdle to try and control the game on the offensive side of the ball. However, if they get down, I don’t expect Cooper Rush to be able to generate enough of a passing game to stay competitive. Give me the Bucs 27-17.

Minnesota Vikings -3.5 over the Seahawks

This is really interesting matchup and one the Seahawks desperately need if they want to stay in the playoff hunt in the NFC. After this game, the Vikings have the Lions and the Packers. They are currently 12-2 and tied for the same record as the Lions and the best record in the NFC. The Lions are leaking oil and the Vikings have a chance to get the one seed in the NFC. However, it starts with a win over the Seahawks.

The Seahawks are one game behind the commanders in the NFC playoff hunt. This is a game they desperately need, and they cannot afford to fall further back. After this game, the Seahawks play the Bears and the Rams. The Bears are clearly winnable, but the Rams will be much more difficult, and the Rams are also currently fighting for that division and a playoff spot. This game is really simple to me; the Vikings are one of the best teams at creating pressure, and the Seahawks are just middling at preventing it. The Vikings will get after Geno Smith, who is banged up, and the Vikings get the win. Give me the Vikings 24-13.

Conclusion

Week 16 is shaping up to be a thrilling week of NFL action, with pivotal matchups impacting playoff standings. We’re locking in the Buccaneers to control the game against the Cowboys and the Vikings to dominate a desperate Seahawks team. These games provide excellent betting value, with the spreads aligning well with the strengths of each team. As always, do your research, enjoy the action, and bet responsibly. Let’s find some winners!

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