The NFL season is quickly approaching. Corey Parson, aka @TheFantasyExec, takes time to look at some player awards odds for the upcoming season and provides his picks.
NFL MVP
The Chalk
When we discuss NFL odds we have to start with the guy who is the reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes (+625) will open up the 2023 campaign as the favorite to win the MVP award; if he does it will be his third MVP award. Last season Mahomes put up a career-high in passing yards with 5,250. He counted for 45 touchdowns, 41 in the air and 4 on the ground. To put it simply Mahomes is the best player in football and the MVP odds reflect that.
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Bengals signal caller Joe Burrow (+700) will be a popular pick for MVP before the season starts. Burrow has the feel of an MVP quarterback. He has led the Bengals to back-to-back AFC Championship games. Last season Burrow put up career-high numbers in completions, attempts, rushing yards and touchdowns. The former LSU Tiger has some of the game’s most talented young receivers at his disposal. However, the Bengals do play in a tough division, expect Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (+900) to be an MVP front-runner as well. If the Bengals can win their third straight AFC North crown Burrow will be a top MVP candidate.
Longshots
If I was looking to make a few longshot wagers on the NFL MVP race this season, I would start with Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (+1000). Lawrence showed drastic improvement in his second season, as he led the Jaguars to an AFC South title and a second-round playoff appearance. The Jags are loaded with playmakers; Lawrence’s odds will shorten as we get closer to the start of the season, so you should place your Lawrence futures early.
AFC quarterbacks will be popular MVP picks. In the NFC, Jalen Hurts (+1000) would be the top candidate and rightfully so. If you want to go off the board and take a long shot I would give a look to Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (+3300). Smith was special last season. He took over for Russell Wilson and in his first season as the starter, he led the Seahawks to the playoffs. Seattle will be even better this year. I think they are the best team in the NFC West. If they can win that division Smith could very well be your 2023-2024 MVP.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
The Chalk
With opening odds of (+275), Falcons rookie running back Bijan Robinson feels like a lock for offensive rookie of the year. The former Texas Longhorn stud is a truly dynamic running back who will be used as a weapon all over the field in head coaches Arthur Smith’s offense in Atlanta. In three seasons at Texas, Robinson ran for over 3400 yards at 6.3 yards per rush, he also averaged over 13 yards per reception. If Robinson is the real deal as many people expect him to be he could win offensive rookie of the year as well as offensive player of the year this season.
Even though the last two offensive Rookie of the Year awards have been won by WR’s, Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson, I still look at this as a quarterback award. If one is worthy. This year my money will be on Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (+400). When Carolina traded up to get the first pick of the draft it was with one player in mind, Bryce Young, the former Crimson Tide quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner. Young did not have the kind of talent on the outside like former ‘Bama signal callers. Young was the leader of the team. I think the Panthers are undervalued coming into the season. I like them to win the NFC South and Young to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Longshots
My longshots for this award come from the same team, the Seattle Seahawks. I’m a big fan of Seahawks wideout, former Ohio State Buckeye Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+1200). Smith-Njigba only played in three games for the Buckeyes last season. He ended his 2021 campaign with a 15 catch 347 yard, 3-touchdown bowl game performance vs. Utah. That stat line is not a typo. The Seahawks are good at developing young talent. That’s why I think rookie running back Zach Charbonnet (+4000) is also a liable candidate for this award. Last season Seahawks rookie Kenneth Walker was running away with the offensive Rookie of the Year award before he got injured.
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