Well, if you’re like me, you’ve been eliminated from your NFL fantasy home league. Whether it was CMC or Rashee Rice getting injured tanking your year, Jaylen Waddle being a major letdown, or maybe you just drafted a bad team, another fantasy year has come to a close. However, fear not! There are still bets to be made and money to be won. With the bye weeks finally passing by, there is a full slate of games to choose from. Let’s find some winners.
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LA Rams +2.5 over the 49ers
The Rams are coming over an upset victory over the Bills. They won a shootout 44-42 at home against a Bills team that many consider the favorites to win the Super Bowl. The big difference in the game was a blocked punt which the Rams returned for a touchdown. The 49ers are coming off a dismantling of the Chicago Bears. They have been banged up all year and haven’t been the team many thought they were going to be headed into this year.
I am not overly thrilled that the game is in San Francisco, but I still like the Rams in this one. I’d like them to even win outright. Over the last four weeks, only one offense has a better EPA per drop-back than the Rams and that is the Buffalo Bills. During that same stretch, the 49ers defense has been a below-average defense based on EPA per drop-back. On top of that, the 49ers backfield is banged up, and there is uncertainty about who’s going to be behind Brock Purdy to take handoffs.
A healthy Rams offense is extremely difficult to deal with. Stafford, Nacua and Kupp are one of the most formidable passing combinations in the NFL and they are getting points. Give me the Rams on the road.
Detroit Lions -1.5 over the Bills
This is a potential Super Bowl preview. Many people would tell you these are likely the two best teams in the NFL right now- even with the Bills coming off a loss to the Rams. Josh Allen and Jared Goff are two of the front-runners for MVP and this game could be a big factor for voters in deciding that.
The Bills’ defense was shredded by the Rams this past Sunday, and they are going to be facing a Lions team that has been cooking on offense all year. They are fourth in the year on EPA per play. The only teams better than them include the Ravens, the Commanders, and… the Buffalo Bills, who are first. This has the makings of being one of the most exciting games of the year and could even look like the Rams-Bills game of last week. A lot of points, a lot of back and forth. This game will likely come down to turnovers. Coincidentally enough, both of these teams are two of the best teams in the NFL in protecting the ball and taking the ball away. This is going to be a fun one. I will take the Lions in a close one.
Take a walk down memory lane. Let’s look at some of my favorite bets for week 13 in the NFL.
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