In this world of sports and sports betting, we all too often look at the bottom line spread, or the total, or even the yardage prop to rate how much we believe in a quarterback. As we head into Championship Sunday, there are four different quarterbacks who are at four different places in their careers. And I think if you look a little deeper, it could help with who you lean into on Sunday.
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Patrick Mahomes
He’s playing with house money. He’s already a Hall of Famer. He doesn’t care about his numbers because it’s all about winning. Mahomes is keeping against time and greatness. As a two-time Super Bowl champion, only he knows what it takes to pivot and evolve and ultimately find his best game in the biggest moments. It was only a few years ago we heard “there will never be another Tom Brady”. Well, guess what, that “next” is here. And as he enters his 6th straight AFC Championship, be very careful how you back him because he is now simply all about the championships and not his numbers.
Lamar Jackson
Soon to be a league MVP. The only man in the league that can routinely outrush everyone in a game and no one blinks an eye. The way Lamar goes about his business is so unique from a betting perspective and it is very difficult to pinpoint each week which number is the best to lean into. Passing, rushing, TD’s–He can do it all but we don’t ever know HOW he is going to do it all. At this stage, much like Mahomes, I don’t think he cares about the individual numbers, but wants to instead validate being a 2-time MVP. And there is only one way to do that–win a chip.
Jared Goff
This man is in the grey area of football careers. When he was traded to Detroit he was supposed to be on the bad side of it. As Matthew Stafford won a title in LA, the narrative became even louder. But now, Goff has stepped out of the shadows and is a prop monster and a potential winning QB. He routinely goes over his numbers in attempts and completions because the Lions have realized that in order to get the maximum out of their run game they need a short quick passing game which leads to a lot of both. This weekend they are up against a team with a defense that is solid by reputation but gettable by what we saw this year. How will the Lions choose to attack the 49ers with Goff? Goff will certainly have a lot of say, but with the play calling against the Rams and Bucs, I am willing to bet we will see a lot of everything, maybe even yards.
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Brock Purdy
I just don’t understand the Brock Purdy haters. What is this man supposed to do? He led the 49ers to the NFC Championship game both years he has been in the league. Last year, an injury knocked him out which wasn’t his fault. His performance last week against the Packers wasn’t eye popping but he showed guts. The drive of his life leading to a game winning TD with a minute to go. His numbers also were not overwhelming but in the playoffs the one thing we know that it simply is about winning. And Brock is a winner.
The Bottom Line
While QB prop betting is very popular and usually tough to predict, this weekend we have the most unique set of signal callers we have seen in the final four in a long time. The word legacy comes to mind every time I think of who needs a win more. Mahomes, who is chasing the ghost of seven Super Bowl titles that we all thought was something we wouldn’t even discuss seriously in our lifetime? Lamar, who people are now realizing why the Ravens put up with all of the drama to compete last year, and were willing to pay $200M plus. How about a QB out of Cal who the Rams sent out of town and was told that “You just aren’t good enough” but now proving that he is? Or a youngster out of Iowa State who got his chance like so many do (through injury) but has no proven up until now that in the right system he could have a very good career. This weekend is about legacy. All different, but all important. And if you’re like me and you always look at the numbers in order to make a little $$$$, be very careful in games where the numbers just really don’t matter. Good Luck!
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